As of February this year, there has been an increase in clashes between Congolese national forces and the armed 23 March Movement (M23) in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), although a ceasefire may now be in place.
The eastern DRC and Rwanda are significant suppliers of coltan and cobalt, which are critical resources for production of electronic devices and batteries. Control of mining areas by armed groups like M23 disrupts supply chains, making it riskier to source minerals from these regions. It is becoming increasingly difficult to conduct on-the-ground due diligence and to ensure the traceability of minerals.
The dominance of Chinese ownership in DRC mining operations and the strategic importance of these minerals may influence future US and EU policy decisions, especially concerning dependence on Chinese controlled resources. The potential shuttering of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) may impact security in the region, as the US is the largest donor to the DRC.
Recent clashes
Clashes between Congolese national forces and M23 in the eastern DRC have increased in February. While M23 has threatened to continue its offensive towards the DRC capital of Kinshasa, this is assessed as unlikely given its 1,600-mile distance. M23 declared a ceasefire as of February 5th.
M23 (the March 23 Movement, or "Mouvement du 23 Mars") is an armed group formed by former militants being integrated into the DRC's armed forces, who turned against the DRC government in 2012, accusing it of not honouring a peace agreement concluded on 23 March 2009.
Travel to the eastern provinces remains high risk. Organisations with staff in the regions of Goma or Bukavu are advised by the FCDO to leave via road routes, avoiding Goma Airport.
Mineral supply chain risks
The eastern DRC, bordering Rwanda, is mineral-rich. The DRC and Rwanda supply around half of the world's coltan, a metallic ore used in the manufacture of batteries and electronic devices. Seventy per cent of the world's cobalt, a key ingredient in production of lithium-ion batteries, comes from the DRC. Both are designated as Critical Raw Materials by the European Union which are essential to technology supply chains.
Multiple armed groups are competing with the central DRC authorities to benefit from this trade. The UN has reported that in April 2024 M23 gained control of Rubaya, which has the region's largest coltan mine, establishing a parallel administration controlling mineral operations. Reports indicate that M23 exported 150 tons of coltan to Rwanda, where it was likely mixed into legitimate production. Artisanal production is also high-risk due to its extraction methods, which reportedly include the use of child labour. Gold in the Ituri province on the border with Uganda also continues to be exploited outside of state control, generating an estimated US $140 million for armed groups and criminal networks.
Sourcing of minerals from either the DRC or Rwanda now involves greater challenges, as on-the-ground due diligence programs, and any form of traceability work, will likely be impossible in view of current associated risks. These risks come against a backdrop of growing awareness of these issues, however, in 2024, the Congolese government filed a lawsuit against Apple, ordering suppliers to cease sourcing materials from the region.
Concentration risks and geopolitical control
In the short term, these disruptions could potentially lead to shortages or increased costs for critical raw materials. Historical and ongoing tensions between the DRC and Rwanda, exacerbated by the M23 conflict, pose a risk of renewed hostilities which could further disrupt regional supply chains and economic activity.
These current attacks may also exacerbate wider issues, given the new US administration's policy priorities. The DRC is the dominant source of minerals used in current battery technology, and of the 10 largest cobalt mines in the world, nine are in the DRC’s southern Katanga region. Of the 10 largest mines, half are owned by Chinese companies. In response, there have been discussions about diversifying supply chains and reducing dependency on Chinese-controlled resources. This geopolitical dynamic is likely to influence future policy decisions regarding critical raw materials.
The suspension of USAID has also impacted the security situation in the region, with workers from the agency being told to suspend all programmes in the country and overseeing an immediate pause to the US $6 billion in humanitarian and development assistance provided to the DRC in the last 10 years.