Recent data indicates a significant escalation in attacks attributed to the Islamic State (IS) terror organisation in 2024. Between January and June 2024, IS claimed responsibility for 153 attacks in Iraq and Syria, setting them on pace to carry out more than twice their total number of attacks in 2023. This surge suggests that IS are attempting to capitalise on Syria’s post-civil war instability, and to reconstitute following several years of decreased capability.
The group’s reach is also starting to widen, with international IS-linked terror incidents making headlines once more. In Austria, a Syrian asylum seeker conducted a fatal stabbing spree in the city of Villach, resulting in one death and multiple injuries; authorities reportedly discovered an IS flag in his residence, highlighting the group's continued ability to inspire lone-wolf attacks far beyond their homeland.
Implications for regional security
Recent political changes in the US have raised questions around continued support for a group of prisons holding thousands of former IS members, currently managed by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Cuts to United States Agency for International Development (USAID) have led to disruptions in essential services within the camps, including food and water supply. If these disruptions continue, the already fragile prison system could become untenable with increased risks of disease and mass breakouts of IS affiliates, potentially further destabilising the region.
Early warnings of IS's resurgence must be taken seriously to avoid the widespread panic and media attention arising from the group's activities through the mid-2010s. Continued global engagement from governments, aid organisations and the private sector will be paramount to prevent a security vacuum being exploited by these extremist elements.