In recent months, discussions surrounding the formation of an “Asian NATO” have gained traction, particularly following calls from the new Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba advocating for stronger security alliances among Asian nations.
Calls for such an initiative are primarily driven by growing regional tensions, particularly in light of China’s assertive military posture in Southeast Asian and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. While the idea of a collective security framework in Asia may seem appealing, its feasibility and the reactions from various foreign powers make the idea more complex.
The notion of an ‘Asian NATO’ stems from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which has effectively deterred aggression through a united front among its members by acting in line with the phrase ‘an attack on one is an attack on all.’
But the path to establishing such an alliance faces significant challenges. One of the most significant hurdles is the lack of interest from major regional powers. Notably, India has expressed skepticism about joining a formal military alliance akin to NATO, likely due to its ongoing territorial disputes with Pakistan.
Further, Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries have historically shown a preference for dialogue and multilateral cooperation over formal alliances. The Japanese constitution itself even forbids them from having offensive military capabilities – something leaders have managed to sidestep when building a national ‘defense force’ but that will be harder to circumvent if they have to actively come to the military aid of an ally.
China itself has voiced strong opposition to the concept of an Asian NATO, viewing it as a potential threat to its sovereignty and regional influence. Chinese officials have warned that such a military alliance could exacerbate tensions, leading to a more fragmented and confrontational security environment in Asia.
Whilst a formal alliance could enhance deterrence against aggressive actions by regional actors and fostering a sense of security among member states, it could also lead to an escalation of tensions with adversarial states perceiving it as a direct challenge to their interests. For companies with interests in the region, monitoring how calls for action such as this develop will be important for any risk assessments or horizon scanning focused on Asia.