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Investigations and intelligence updates

Issue 8: April 2025

Investigations and intelligence updates

Editor's note

Emeric Bernard-Jones

Welcome to our 8th edition of Investigations and intelligence updates, our monthly publication.

This month, our analysts have gathered insights from Rwanda, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ukraine, and Poland to shed light on key developments shaping the global geopolitical landscape.

Of particular interest this month, I’d like to highlight a news story that we thought received all to little media coverage — a major announcement from Polish President Andrzej Duda who publicly appealed to the United States to consider stationing nuclear weapons in Poland, citing the urgent need for stronger deterrence against continued Russian aggression across Europe.

In parallel, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also unveiled plans for an overhaul of their defence strategy, emphasizing the importance of advanced military capabilities—including nuclear options—to safeguard national security.

This move comes amid a fast-changing security environment in Eastern Europe, especially with the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. If you’d like a deeper dive into that, make sure to check out our Ukraine Update, also featured in this issue.

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Afghan/Pakistan ceasefire and the Torkham Trade Route

On March 17, 2025, Pakistan and Afghanistan reached an agreement to implement a ceasefire and reopen the Torkham border crossing. This agreement comes after a period of sustained tensions between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan’s ruling Tehreek-e-Insaf party, which saw the closure of the Torkham trade route and increased friction over border security and refugee policies.

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Atlantic split: a new compliance landscape?

The war precipitated by Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine has continued into recent months at great human and economic cost. The conflict has also continued to affect broader diplomatic and security relationships, with recent moves by the administration of United States (US) President Donald Trump proving especially disruptive to the outgoing Biden administration's alignment with European states to counter Russia's aggression. In particular, indications that the US may relax existing sanctions on Russia suggest a potential divergence from the approach of the European Union (EU) with politically and commercially significant implications.

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Diplomatic breakup between Rwanda and Belgium threatens regional stability

In March 2025, Rwanda announced the severance of its diplomatic ties with Belgium, instructing all Belgian diplomats to exit the country within 48 hours. The move stems from escalating tensions regarding Rwanda's alleged support for M23, a rebel group currently fighting an insurgency in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

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